Insights category - Markets economy

Markets & economy

As bottom-up stock pickers we are less concerned about the market and economy than factors that make individual shares attractive. However, we acknowledge that we need to bear in mind the context in which we must invest. Here we share our long-term views on the market and economy.   

Articles in "Markets & economy"

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Seeking a bridge for South Africa’s troubled waters

By Raine Adams on 01 Oct 2024

Reading time: 16 mins

As South Africans breathe a sigh of relief that load shedding has tailed off, water risks have come to the fore. Multiple provinces are grappling with...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Rate-cutting cycle kicks off

By Thalia Petousis on 25 Sep 2024

Reading time: 8 mins

During the last quarter, US equity indices reached new all-time highs as the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a cut of 50...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

After four years, South Africa gets repo rate relief

By Thalia Petousis on 20 Sep 2024

Reading time: 3 mins

On 19 September, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates for the first time in four years – lowering the overnight rate of interest from 8.2...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

How the great election year has shaped financial markets

By Vuyo Mroxiso on 18 Sep 2024

Listening time: 50 mins

Global elections have been a dominant force this year, with sentiment around polling and election results driving volatility in many markets.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Investment notes from the frontier

By Grant Pitt on 20 May 2024

Listening time: 51 min

Investing in frontier markets is not for the faint-hearted. But for those brave enough to look beyond material risks, such as political instability, currency...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The trillion-dollar endgame

By Thalia Petousis on 02 May 2024

Reading time: 13 mins

The US government has dug itself into a debt hole. With spending being its go-to solution for most problems, it is unclear how the situation will be resolved...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Frontier markets: Innovative industry leaders drive returns

By Varshan Maharaj on 14 Apr 2024

Reading time: 3 mins

There are many variables to consider when investing in frontier markets, and investors need to weigh up the risks very carefully as they pursue long-term...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What’s in store for interest rates in 2024?

By Thalia Petousis on 08 Feb 2024

Reading time: 6 mins

Over the course of 2023, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the overnight repo rate from 7.00% to a 14-year high of 8.25%. 

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Eskom: Are brighter days ahead?

By Raine Adams on 01 Feb 2024

Reading time: 16 mins

What does 2024 have in store for loadshedding? Raine Adams investigates whether there is any light at the end of the dark tunnel.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Is South Africa winning the inflation battle?

By Thandi Skade on 26 Sep 2023

Reading time: 4 mins

Following the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) aggressive near-two-year interest rate hiking cycle, headline inflation in South Africa seems to be getting...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Currency dynamics and returns in emerging and frontier markets

By Rami Hajjar on 31 Jul 2023

Reading time: 16 mins

Rami Hajjar considers currency dynamics in emerging and frontier markets, focusing on how currency impacts returns, and how we think about this factor when...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The prospects for global growth

By Sandy McGregor on 19 Jul 2023

Reading time: 18 mins

The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The new normal: What lies ahead?

By Thalia Petousis on 27 Mar 2023

Listening time: 1 min

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The 2023 Budget: A crisis of credibility in the outer years of the forecast

By Thalia Petousis on 13 Feb 2023

Reading time: 5 mins

Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, shares her views on the challenges of putting together a credible national budget

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Massive market moves: How will they shape the years ahead?

By Tamryn Lamb on 09 Feb 2023

Listening time: 54 Mins

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Are inflation-beating returns on the horizon for money market investors in 2023?

By Thalia Petousis on 26 Jan 2023

Reading time: 5 mins

The 2022 calendar year was undeniably one of meaningful financial market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that many investors ha...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal

By Sandy McGregor on 20 Jan 2023

Reading time: 4 mins

2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate

By Sandy McGregor on 02 Nov 2022

Reading time: 3 mins

During the past quarter inflation has remained elevated. In the US the latest print for August was 8.3%. In Europe it was 10.0% in September. Even though in...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation

By Thalia Petousis on 27 Oct 2022

Reading time: 10 mins

Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Podcast: Can South African investors continue to count on commodities?

By Sean Munsie on 25 Aug 2022

Listening time: 1 min

In this episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio managers Sean Munsie and Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and investment analyst Jithen Pillay discuss the cyclica...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Whither inflation?

By Sandy McGregor on 28 Jul 2022

Reading time: 21 mins

In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

On the commodity boom and other South African fables (and foibles)

By Thalia Petousis on 28 Jul 2022

Reading time: 8 mins

Just as the economic destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic rose to crisis levels, strong commodity export prices swept in to alleviate South Africa’s fiscal...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Podcast: Can optimism rise from the inflationary ashes?

By Thalia Petousis on 25 Jul 2022

Listening time: 43 min

In conversation with portfolio manager, Thalia Petousis, Sandy McGregor reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting th...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Positioning our portfolios for an inflationary environment

By Gladness Rupare on 01 Jul 2022

Viewing time: 40 min

With rising global inflation and the possibility of a recession on the cards, investors are tasked with protecting their capital and looking for opportunitie...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”?

By Thalia Petousis on 12 May 2022

Reading time: 7 mins

Unaffordable food and fuel prices are raising developed market consumer inflation to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve recently announced a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The transition into the post-pandemic world

By Sandy McGregor on 27 Jan 2022

Reading time: 19 mins

It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation

By Sandy McGregor on 15 Oct 2021

Reading time: 4 mins

With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Lebanon’s financial collapse

By Rami Hajjar on 11 Oct 2021

Reading time: 19 mins

On 17 October 2019, angry demonstrators took to the streets of Lebanon to protest a US$6 per month WhatsApp communication tax. Little did they know that the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Africa market bond exposure: Understanding the risks and opportunities

By Londa Nxumalo on 11 Oct 2021

Reading time: 11 mins

Is it worth taking on a bit more risk to achieve potential return? Londa Nxumalo explains the relationship between risk and return in the fixed income contex...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global recovery underway

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Apr 2021

Reading time: 2 mins

The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The state of the economy

By Sandy McGregor and Vuyo Nogantshi on 10 Feb 2021

Viewing time: 62 mins

In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

America as seen from afar

By Sandy McGregor on 27 Jan 2021

Reading time: 19 mins

The United States is of critical importance to all investors regardless of where they are domiciled. It is the world’s largest economy, the powerhouse of...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

African sovereign debt: Is a reality check looming?

By Mark Dunley-Owen on 26 Jan 2021

Reading time: 3 mins

Despite deteriorating economic fundamentals, Africa’s financial markets made a remarkable recovery in 2020. Mark Dunley-Owen discusses the price distortion i...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

African institutional investors

By Tapologo Motshubi on 02 Dec 2020

Viewing time: 84 mins

In the third of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, African institutional investors share their...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

African sovereign and corporate listed bonds

By Tapologo Motshubi on 16 Nov 2020

Viewing time: 1 hr 9 mins 2 seconds

In the second of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, Celestin Rwabukumba, CEO of the Rwanda Sto...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The dangers of printing money

By Sandy McGregor on 16 Oct 2020

Reading time: 14 mins

Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Searching for value amid Africa’s disappointing equity returns

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 11 Aug 2020

Reading time: 5 mins

International equity markets have recovered sharply from the March lows, however African markets made only a modest recovery. As the continent’s leaders face...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Unpacking the impact of COVID-19 for Botswana investors

By Tapologo Motshubi on 08 Jul 2020

Reading time: 1 min

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced countries into lockdown and amplified market volatility, leading most investors in Botswana to question the impact the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Investing beyond COVID-19

By Tamryn Lamb on 26 May 2020

Reading time: 1 min

While financial market volatility as a result of COVID-19 is expected to continue over the short term, the investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis are focus...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The world after the COVID-19 pandemic

By Sandy McGregor on 23 Apr 2020

Reading time: 11 mins

We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Is there long-term value in frontier markets?

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 23 Apr 2020

Reading time: 6 mins

At the time of publication, roughly one-third of the world’s population is living under lockdown regulations as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In many...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity

By Duncan Artus on 25 Mar 2020

Viewing time: 1 min

We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Making sense of current market conditions

By on 12 Mar 2020

Reading time: 6 mins

The current market volatility is understandably causing investors much stress. Allan Gray and Orbis examine the impact of coronavirus and offer clients some...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

How could a ratings downgrade affect investors?

By Sehrish Khan on 13 Feb 2020

Reading time: 8 mins

Inundated with reports of failing state-owned enterprises and spiralling government debt, investors are understandably concerned ahead of South Africa’s 2020...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Inflation

By Sandy McGregor on 29 Jan 2020

Reading time: 15 mins

Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What lies ahead for Africa’s frontier markets?

By Nick Ndiritu on 20 Jan 2020

Reading time: 5 mins

At the core of our investment philosophy is a belief that markets are not always efficient or rational. We invest in businesses that we consider to be...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

An age of anxiety

By Sandy McGregor on 22 Oct 2019

Reading time: 3 mins

We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Broadened horizons, local learnings

By Nick Ndiritu and Leonard Krüger on 22 Oct 2019

Reading time: 7 mins

Leonard Krüger and Nick Ndiritu look at how we have tailored our investment philosophy and process to invest in Frontier Africa markets. They discuss lessons...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

South African investors need to fall out of love with equities

By Kevin Lings on 30 Jul 2019

Reading time: 6 mins

South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Trade wars

By Sandy McGregor on 29 Jul 2019

Reading time: 18 mins

In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global business conditions deteriorate

By Sandy McGregor on 12 Jul 2019

Reading time: 2 mins

Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Guarded optimism on new Zimbabwe dollar

By Nick Ndiritu on 03 Jul 2019

Reading time: 5 mins

This past quarter, Zimbabwe reintroduced its national currency, reviving bitter memories of the hyperinflation period before the infamous Zimbabwe dollar was...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Finding value in frontier African markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 29 Apr 2019

Reading time: 12 mins

Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global slowdown continues to take its toll

By Sandy McGregor on 26 Apr 2019

Reading time: 2 mins

The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Riding out volatility in African equity markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 04 Feb 2019

Reading time: 4 mins

Africa’s equity markets delivered disappointing returns in 2018. The MSCI Africa index was down -24%, while the MSCI Africa ex-SA index was down -13%. None o...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

South Africa's fiscal dilemma

By Sandy McGregor on 25 Jan 2019

Reading time: 11 mins

Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global economy losing momentum

By Sandy McGregor on 18 Jan 2019

Reading time: 3 mins

After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets

By Duncan Artus on 12 Oct 2018

Reading time: 4 mins

Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure

By Sandy McGregor on 05 Oct 2018

Reading time: 3 mins

Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Increasing policy uncertainty

By Sandy McGregor on 20 Jul 2018

Reading time: 3 mins

With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest

By Kevin Lings on 18 Jul 2018

Reading time: 5 mins

South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Zimbabwe in transition

By Nick Ndiritu on 06 Jul 2018

Reading time: 6 mins

Zimbabwe’s election on 30 July 2018 heralds a new beginning after the abrupt end to President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign in November 2017. We are not...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Approaching a tipping point?

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2018

Reading time: 11 mins

After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Demystifying Africa’s debt markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 15 Feb 2018

Reading time: 4 mins

Investors seeking diversification outside of South Africa can easily overlook the investment opportunities in other African markets. It is tempting to start ...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Tough times for African equities

By Andrew Lapping on 03 Feb 2017

Reading time: 4 mins

Most African equity markets had a difficult 2016, generating negative dollar returns. The worst performers were Egypt and Nigeria, which fell 47% and 41%...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What is the sweet spot for the oil price?

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 25 Jan 2017

Listening time: 20 mins

In the face of an OPEC oil production cut, shale producer activity and US President Donald Trump proposing various far-reaching changes what can we expect fr...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Investing in Africa’s debt markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 30 Sep 2016

Reading time: 8 mins

Patient capital dedicated to Africa’s capital markets is scarce, especially during economic or political downturns. Nick Ndiritu explains how long-term...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Gold: A history of its price

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2016

Reading time: 11 mins

Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls

By Duncan Artus and Tamryn Lamb on 23 Nov 2015

Reading time: 4 mins

Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The collapse of the oil price and its consequences

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2014

Reading time: 7 mins

The dramatic collapse of oil prices at the end of last year caught most market participants by surprise. For three and a half years, between February 2011 an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Understanding the risk of loss in Africa ex-SA

By Andrew Lapping on 30 Jun 2014

Reading time: 9 mins

A small percentage of the foreign component of our Balanced and Stable Funds is invested in Africa and investors looking for greater exposure to the region c...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The nature of contrarian investing

By Duncan Artus on 31 Dec 2012

Reading time: 7 mins

The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

China's Malthusian challenge

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Mar 2011

Reading time: 9 mins

Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Deflation

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Sep 2010

Reading time: 8 mins

It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The triumph of the markets

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2009

Reading time: 8 mins

It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...

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